Bitcoin Continues to Hover Within Established Range
Despite experiencing a significant drop below the $116,000 mark, Bitcoin (BTC) remains trapped in its established trading range of $115,000 to $121,000, which has persisted for the past 18 days. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding pro-crypto policies from U.S. regulators under the Trump administration has created a sense of anxiety among traders.
On Wednesday, Bitcoin’s value plummeted sharply following the Federal Reserve’s release of the FOMC minutes, along with comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding the decision to maintain current interest rates. However, the cryptocurrency rebounded on Thursday as both U.S. equities and crypto markets shifted their focus back to fundamental factors and the anticipated long-term effects of President Trump’s economic agenda. Although Bitcoin dipped below $116,000, it continues to trade within the same range it has occupied for nearly three weeks, with indications that a breakout may soon occur.
Analysts from Hyblock Capital characterized the price movements before and after the FOMC meeting as a liquidity hunt, noting the emergence of a “classic indecision” candle on a 15-minute chart, which displayed wicks on both ends as market sentiment fluctuated. They highlighted a bid-ask ratio metric at a 10% order book depth turning red, which increased the likelihood of Bitcoin testing a liquidation point at $115,883.
Current liquidation data for the BTC/USDT perpetual contracts on Binance and Bybit shows that the liquidation conditions remain stable, with short positions facing liquidation risks above $120,000 and long positions at risk below $115,000. The aggregate order book data from TRDR indicates that sell walls are solidifying around the $121,100 mark, while significant buying interest has materialized at $111,000.
Price Compression Signals Potential Expansion
On Wednesday, analysts at Cointelegraph pointed out that the compression of Bitcoin’s price and the lack of aggressive leverage in futures markets suggest an impending range expansion for the cryptocurrency. At that time, the Bollinger Bands had narrowed, and Bitcoin was trading above its 20-day moving average, prompting many traders to anticipate a potential upward breakout.
While the market has primarily focused on Bitcoin’s downside liquidity, several positive developments are also taking shape. Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, indicated that Bitcoin purchases by corporate treasuries have surged in recent weeks, with more than three companies acquiring Bitcoin daily. Edwards also shared that his metric for treasury buys and sells indicates a significant disparity, with buyers outnumbering sellers by a ratio of 100:1 on a monthly basis.
After experiencing $285 million in outflows last week, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have resumed, totaling $641.3 million in net flows since July 23, despite Bitcoin’s recent price decline. The White House’s recent crypto report, along with SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins’ speech on the American Leadership in the Digital Finance Revolution, has laid out a clear framework for the Trump administration’s strategic objectives regarding the cryptocurrency sector. Although the immediate effects may not be reflected in current crypto prices, these developments set a solid foundation for broader adoption and signal institutional investors to confidently increase their allocations to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
In the short term, if selling pressure continues, a price decline that absorbs long liquidity in the $115,000 to $111,000 range appears probable. For bullish traders, a strong bid at $111,000 would be ideal, as it could trigger a significant volume spike to reclaim the range above $116,000. An even more favorable scenario would involve both spot and perpetual futures cumulative volume delta turning positive, as buyers strive to achieve a daily close above the $120,000 resistance level.
This article is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as legal or investment advice. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Cointelegraph.
