Key Insights
Bitcoin’s upcoming $4.3 billion options expiration is leaning towards neutral to bullish positions, potentially yielding a $175 million advantage if prices remain above $113,000. The short-term movement of Bitcoin could be significantly influenced by macroeconomic factors, including disappointing US employment statistics and uncertainties in the AI sector.
Bitcoin Surges Following Positive Oracle Earnings
On Thursday, Bitcoin (BTC) climbed past the $114,000 threshold, driven by a favorable earnings report from Oracle Corporation (ORCL), a key player in the artificial intelligence infrastructure market. This upward movement marked Bitcoin’s highest price in over two weeks and stirred anticipation for a more robust bullish trend as the $4.3 billion BTC options expiration approaches on Friday.
Current Options Market Dynamics
In the current options expiry, put options, which allow traders to sell, dominate with an open interest of $2.35 billion, compared to $1.93 billion for call options, which enable buying. Despite this, the bullish sentiment has strengthened as Bitcoin’s price rebounded from the lows of $107,500 earlier this month. The existing preference for put options is noteworthy, as crypto traders generally exhibit an optimistic outlook.
Deribit Leads the Options Market
Deribit continues to hold a commanding position in the options market, accounting for 75% of Bitcoin’s weekly expiry share, followed by OKX at 13%. Bybit and Binance make up around 5% each. The dominance of Deribit provides crucial insights into Bitcoin’s potential to break through the $120,000 barrier in the near future.
Bearish Positions Lack Support
Positions betting against Bitcoin appear to be poorly positioned, with less than $125 million in put options at $114,000 or higher on Deribit. In contrast, there’s over $300 million in call contracts that would become active if Bitcoin maintains levels above $113,000 by the time of Friday’s expiry. This $175 million edge for call buyers could serve as the necessary impetus for Bitcoin to continue its upward trajectory.
Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Bitcoin’s Potential
Oracle’s share price surged by 36% on Wednesday, fueled by forecasts of enhanced earnings following a $455 billion increase in future contracts. Reports indicated that OpenAI alone constituted $300 billion of Oracle’s backlog, raising concerns regarding the longevity of AI-driven growth.
Concerns Over Employment Data
Traders’ optimism was dampened following a significant negative revision in the United States employment figures. Bank of America equity analyst Ebrahim Poonawala expressed that the rising unemployment could deteriorate credit quality among major banks. However, he noted that credit losses have not yet been significant throughout 2025.
Final Price Movements Before Expiry
If Bitcoin can maintain its position above $112,000 leading into Friday’s expiry, call options will surpass put options by $50 million, supporting a neutral-to-bullish strategy. Conversely, if the price dips below $111,000 by 8:00 am Friday, put options would gain a $100 million advantage. Ultimately, Bitcoin’s price trajectory will likely be determined right at the expiry point, heavily influenced by ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
Disclaimer
This article serves only for informational purposes and should not be construed as legal or investment advice. The opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of Cointelegraph.
